In Florida, the election could be decided in Donald Trump’s favor: to shake his electoral base in the “Swing State” – but the incumbent party is getting a new growing group.
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It is too early to predict with any certainty a winner in the US presidential election. But Tuesday’s initial polls show that on the one hand, key cornerstones of the Republican incumbent Donald Trump’s base are shaking. On the other hand, he also outperformed four years ago with the fast-growing and increasingly important Latino voter group.
With white men and seniors, of all places, Trump could not score as well, at least in some states, as he did in 2016. This is the result of post-election polls by experts at Edison Research. Some voters said they had defected to Biden, even though Trump still outperformed the Democratic candidate on balance with these groups. In Georgia, for example, seven out of ten white men voted for Trump. In 2016, there were eight when Trump beat Hillary Clinton. The situation is comparable to voters aged 65 or older. Six in ten voted for Trump, four years ago it was seven in ten. A similar picture occurred in Virginia.
However, in hotly contested Florida, just like in 2016, six in ten white voters said they voted for Trump. In addition, half of all Latinos voted for him. In the last presidential elections, there were only four out of ten. Should Trump achieve his mandatory victory in the sunny state, he would mainly owe it to the Latinos. His strategy of winning over the numerous Cuban-descent voters in densely populated southern Florida, many of whom had once fled the communist-ruled Caribbean island, would have worked by his side with a strict policy against Cuba. All in all, three out of ten non-white voters voted for Trump. It was only two in ten against Clinton.
For the polls, Edison interviewed voters directly on Tuesday, but also earlier at polling stations where early voters could cast their votes before the actual election day. The pollsters also conducted telephone interviews with Americans who voted by letter.
Corona pandemic is giving birth to voters
The coronavirus pandemic in particular worried voters. More than 9.4 million people are infected in the United States and more than 230,000 have died. In the nationwide Edison poll, only two in ten voters indicated that Corona was the most important criterion for them in their voting decision. Half of all voters believed it was more important to contain the pandemic, even if it hurt the economy.
Trump, on the other hand, made full opening up of the economy a guideline during the election campaign, despite the increasing number of infections. Biden also accuses him of not fighting the pandemic. In the mid-term polls, four in ten voters called attempts to contain the virus “very bad”.
Six out of ten voters said the pandemic caused them at least “moderate financial hardship”. Seven in ten said it was a responsibility to wear mouth and nose protection for public health reasons. In addition to the corona pandemic, voters cited the economic situation, racism, crime and security and health policy as important topics for them.