The race for the US presidency remains tight, but Donald Trump is losing ground. A major U.S. state could make the decision – that’s where Biden is catching up. The current forecasts.
US President Donald Trump and his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, are taking part in the US elections on November 3 about the presidency. The race is close – much will depend on which candidate can win in the big swing states. Florida is currently in the focus, with Biden’s lead in the US state shrinking to 1.6 percentage points. The gaps are also small in North Carolina and Ohio. Worry for Trump: In Texas, his lead is melting to just 2.3 percent. Should he lose this important state, Biden will likely win the US presidential election.
The election campaign takes place in times of crisis, the corona pandemic has hit the United States hard and since the spring there have been massive protests against racism and police brutality in the country following the death of African American George Floyd.
By the summer, Trump’s crisis management meant he was well behind Democrat Biden in national polls and was only slowly catching up to the fall. Nationally, Biden’s average lead in the surveys is over 8.5 percent. (From September 21 at 11 a.m.). This allows the Democrat to extend his lead across the country (previously: 6.4 percent)
Who is really ahead?
The problem: nationwide surveys in the US provide little information about who may eventually move into the White House. In the 2016 US election, Democrat Hillary Clinton came in with 48.2 percent of the vote, ahead of Republican Trump with 46.1 percent. The end is known, Trump became president of the US anyway.
This is mainly due to the US electoral system. The president is not directly elected by the people, but by 538 electoral men and women. Each state has a certain number, depending on the population size. The candidate with the most votes in the state, in effect, registers all of the state’s electorate for himself. Exception: In Maine and Nebraska, voters’ votes are divided according to the majorities in the constituencies. The state overall winner will receive two more votes.
Therefore, predictions about the US election are relatively difficult. But from opinion polls in the various US states, one can estimate how close the race really is.
Current predictions: According to the average calculations of “270toWin”, an impartial political side, Biden is clearly in the lead after electoral men and women. The race has not yet been decided.
What is the situation like in the swing states?
Biden’s lead over Trump isn’t as big as it seems. US presidential elections are often decided in a few “swing states” – these are US states where in the past there was often a varying democratic or republican majority. In some, the race is close and there are many voters.
US presidential elections were often decided in Ohio, Michigan, and Florida. In these US states, the race is tight, including Biden’s race against Trump. Recently, Biden almost completely lost his lead in the Florida and North Carolina polls, with a total of 44 electoral men and women in the two US states alone.
Current forecast: In the 2020 US election, it is especially surprising that polls in Texas predict a relatively tight result. If Trump loses in the Republicans’ homeland (38 electoral men and women), he will likely lose the election too. For Biden, a Florida victory (29 electoral men and women) would be a big step on his way to president. Here Trump could gain the upper hand against Clinton in 2016 (1.6 percent).
Democrats or Republicans – Who Wins the Majority in Senate and Congress?
In November, however, not only the US president will be elected, but also the House of Representatives and the Senate.
According to the current calculations of “270toWin” in the House of Representatives, it appears that the Democrats can defend or even expand their majority. The 435 members of the House of Representatives each represent one constituency and are directly elected every two years. The survey shown reflects trends in the constituencies. Even if the Democrats have lost all of the races currently considered “close”, they should still retain a majority.
The battle for a majority in the Senate seems to be approaching, and it is still unclear which party will win a majority here after the November elections. About a third of the Senate is re-elected every two years. This third is highlighted in the image.
The Senate consists of 100 senators. Each state has two seats. In the states that must grant a mandate, decisions are taken by majority vote. The survey values shown reflect the trends in the states.
Current forecast: The polls currently see Democrats in favor. If confirmed, the party could win majorities in Congress and the Senate alongside the US presidency. That would give them plenty of room for maneuver for the next two years and would mean a severe defeat for Trump and the Republicans.