Many are surprised that India and China have announced a joint withdrawal of troops after months of tension on the disputed Himalayan border. The BBC made the announcement on Friday in Moscow after a lengthy meeting between Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Analysts say the announcement was made amid tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors to avoid a possible war. But how soon peace can be established between India and China in view of the announcement of the withdrawal of troops; Not sure Because the joint declaration lacks information.
Earlier this week, China’s state-run Global Times reported that if Delhi instigated the war, Chinese troops would quickly attack and destroy Indian troops. India also threatened to retaliate. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said that there should be no doubt about his country’s role in protecting regional dignity.
The actual situation on the border and the confrontation between the two forces came out in these statements. In June, the two armies clashed with sharp-edged weapons in the Galawan Valley of Ladakh. It killed 20 Indian soldiers. Both countries still have a large number of troops stationed in the border area. The two countries have conflicting positions along the border in the region and this is not easy to resolve.
So why did the two countries agree to ease tensions, as some people expected?
Many observers, including Michael Kuzelman, deputy director of the think tank Wilson Center, believe that despite readiness for the conflict, the two countries have felt that no war is expected on a very limited scale. “It can be disastrous for both the country and the wider region,” he said. Economic indicators for war were too risky. ‘
According to a BBC analysis, S. Jaishankar has served as India’s ambassador to Beijing for many years and his good relations with Chinese diplomats are not unknown. It seems to have played a role in reducing tensions between the two countries. Kuzelman said it could melt the ice. Personal relationships can often become important in diplomatic negotiations.
Weather also seems to have played an important role behind the mutual withdrawal of troops. The high valleys of Galvan become unusable in winter. Retired Indian Army Lieutenant General Binod Bhatia said that the army is accustomed to working in harsh conditions, but if given the opportunity, the forces of both countries would like to avoid it.
According to various reports, the Indian Army has recently confiscated several mountain peaks used for surveillance by the Chinese Army. However, no country accepted this news. “India would have used this opportunity as a chess piece,” Bhatia said.
Apart from the border dispute, the two countries have to deal with many other issues. The number of Kovid-19 cases in India is increasing rapidly and the economy is also suffering. And if an armed conflict erupts, the country’s ability to face these challenges will suffer. Meanwhile, China is in dispute with several other countries including the United States. Beijing is also facing worldwide criticism over its controversial Hong Kong security law. These factors are believed to have played an important role in announcing the withdrawal of the army.
But Ian Sun, director of the Stamson Center, a Washington-based think tank, said the joint statement of the two countries lacked detailed information. First, it did not mention the Line of Actual Control (LAC) of the border between the two countries. He said the army is still deployed in some disputed areas of the LAC. As a result, the announcement did not say anything clear on these issues.
Retired Indian Lieutenant General Bhatia said it would take time to ease the tension. The current situation will take longer. “The area is very large and it will take time for the commanders to understand,” he said.
Both countries want to maintain stability. And Ian Sun thinks it’s very complicated. He said that the two countries have different interpretations of the status quo. He said that the Chinese army has infiltrated the claimed territory of India. And it is not clear whether they will proceed. The escalation of tensions will also determine how quickly both countries are able to withdraw their troops. The source of tension is the construction of a contact road between an Indian military base and an airport. But Ian Sun feels that road construction alone is not the reason for the increase. Because it will take 20 years to be made and it is no secret. He believes that many more factors have worked here. He said that India’s decision to end Kashmir’s autonomy and Washington’s continued development of relations with Delhi played a key role. “Beijing thinks that if India is punished, Delhi and Washington will be educated at the same time,” he said. But he did not realize that India would not hesitate to retaliate. ‘
Beijing is embroiled in diplomatic tensions with several countries as the United States accuses China of failing to deal effectively with coronovirus outbreaks. As a result, they have become more aggressive, and that aggression has been reflected in recent statements by Beijing officials, Ian Sun said. He says that aggression has become an important factor in China’s foreign policy in recent months. And China’s state media often remind neighbors of Beijing’s vast military capabilities.
Wilson Center Deputy Director Michael Kuzelman said the withdrawal did not happen because the two countries wanted to undermine Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s efforts to improve relations. The two leaders have met 16 times since Modi came to power in 2014. “But it has all failed in the last few days, and it will be interesting to see how China and India now make their declarations for the people of both countries,” Kuzelman said.
However, Ian Sun feels that the decades-old dispute over the 3,440-km LAC will not be resolved in a few days. तो So this is good as a start. “A horse worse than horses,” said David Cook, head of the Washington bureau of The Christian Science Monitor.